Basically the central point they make is that even despite a small increase in births this year, the negative population momentum is now so strong that it is very hard to arrest the drift. Blow I reproduce a part of their argument, my own brief look at Latvian demography can be found here.
The data of Central Statistical Bureau show that in 2007 the positive trend in the creation of new families is continuing and the number of newborns is increasing. However, due to the number of deaths exceeding births, as well as due to emigration from Latvia, mainly to other European Union countries, the number of population continues to decrease. At the end of the year it will be approximately 2 million 270 thousand, or less by 11.6 thousand persons than at the beginning of the year.
Statistical data characterizing demographic situation in 10 months of this year and their estimation for November and December allows to forecast that this year the number of born children will be more by 1150 children than in previous year 2006, or more by 2 thousand compared to 2005. The number of newborns might be 23.4 thousand. With the increase of the number of births, the relative birth indicator (births per 1000 population) will also increase, and it could be 10.3 (in 2006- 9.7).
The number of deaths in 2007 will be approximately 33 thousand or the same as a year before. However, taking into account that the number of population decreases, the relative death indicator (deaths per 1000 population) will slightly increase, and will make up approximately 14.54 (in 2006- 14.47).
As the total of deaths exceeds the number of births, in the result the number of population in 2007 will decrease by 9.7 thousand persons compared to 10.8 thousand persons in 2006.
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