Latvia Inflation April 2008

Well when it rains it really rains! Following close on the back of the news that Latvia's first quarter growth marked a strong slowdown, we now have Latvia's April inflation rate, which showed another strong uptick and rose to the highest level in nearly 12 years.

According to Latvijas Statistika the inflation rate, which is the highest in the 27-nation European Union, rose to 17.5 percent in April from 16.8 percent in March. Month on month, consumer prices rose 1.5 percent over March, the same level as registered in the previous month.



Electricity prices grew 39.2 percent in April on the month adding the most to inflation, the statistics office said. Food prices, which make up about a quarter of the consumer-price basket, rose about 20.8 percent from a year ago.

This now has all the signs of a very hard landing indeed scenario, with Latvia trapped in the vice of a pretty vicious form of what is generally known as stagflation.

Latvia GDP 2008 Q1 GDP Flash Estimate

Latvijas Statistika published the following 2008 Q1 GDP flash estimate on its website this morning:

In accordance with flash estimate published the CSB, which is based on currently available statistical data and econometric models, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 3.6%, compared to first quarter of 2007.

More precise data and more extensive analysis of first quarter 2008 GDP will be published on June 9, 2008. In the meantime we are rather left guessing again. First of here is the year on year chart:

If we look at the rate of decline indicated by the slope of the line over the last three quarters one thing is clear: this is now that long feared "hard landing". I think though that had already been clear for some time from the data we had been seeing from retail sales and industrial output.

I will try and put something more extensive up either later this afternoon or early tomorrow, but if we take into account that quarter on quarter growth over the 3 previous quarters had been at a rate of 2.4, 2.5 and 1.2% respectively, and that this added up amounts to 6.1% growth in 3 quarters it is pretty clear that we must have seen quite a strong contraction (in seasonally adjusted terms, since the other numbers are seasonally adjusted) in Q1 2008. More later.

Update

What a chump I am sometimes. Basically the easiest thing to do in life is to miss the blindingly obvious. Now what we do know - according to the flash estimate, which can be revised of course, but as one commenter (see below) astutely notices normally the revisions have been downwards of late - we do "know" that GDP probably rose by something in the region of 3.6% year on year, and we do know that GDP in Q1 2007 was 2058.2million lats (I just looked this up at Lavijas statistikas). So if we increase this number by 3.6% we get 2132.2 million lats (since I just did the calculation), and that puts Q1 2008 at a level lying below the 2,192.1 million lats of Q2 2007 and below the 2,240.9 million lats of Q3 2007 (all at constant, inflation adjusted, prices).




That is to say that - in constant price terms - Latvian GDP hit a peak at some point between Q2 and Q3 2007 (lets say August 2007) and since that time has been steadily CONTRACTING. Now I know there are probably hundreds of different ways of skinning a chicken, and of course you can read data everywhichway you want to, and there are seasonal factors to take into account, but as far as I am concerned there is no getting away from it, on any reasonable criterion the Latvian economy is now in recession, and has been since the middle of last year, and as a result I am now more than happy to stick with my original recession call which I made when I first had site of the detailed Q4 2007 data.

As I say the Latvian economy is contracting, and I see no sign (or jutification for thinking) that it is going to start expanding again in the immediate future. Obviously some sectors like agriculture and transport will have picked up in the spring, but these will more than likely be offset by the continuing slowdown in other areas. So I really don't see where people are getting all those positive GDP growth numbers for 2008 from at this point, I really don't.

Latvia Industrial Output March 2008

In March 2008, industrial output in Latvia fell 5.5 percent on a working day adjusted basis and at constant prices when compared with March 2007, according to the latest data from Latvijas Statistika. Output in mining and quarrying shrunk 21.1 percent, and output in the manufacturing industry was down by 9.2 percent. Only output in power, gas and water supply increased - by 3.6 percent.

Compared to February, this March, Latvia's industrial output contracted by 1.5 percent on a seasonally and working day adjusted basis. This composite figure included a 10.8 percent drop in mining and quarrying, a 4.3 percent decrease in manufacturing and a 4.3 percent growth in power, gas and water supply.

Certainly if we look at the charts we will see that the slowdown is now pretty dramatic.




Over the entire first quarter of 2008, industrial output in Latvia declined by 3.1 percent, compared to the same period a year ago.Over the three-month period, output decreased by 4.7 percent in manufacturing and by 0.3 percent in power, gas and water supply, but rose 4.6 percent in mining and quarrying.




Now when we saw the GDP data for the last quarter of 2007 I was arguing at that point that Latvia had quite probably already entered recession (ie quarterly negative growth), and when we come to look at this industrial output data for Q1 2008and put it up against the retail sales data (see chart below) it is very difficult not to think that the Latvian economy is now well mired in recession, especially if we take into account the fact thgat at this point the Latvian government was still trying to run a fiscal surplus, so there is no relief on that front either. So Latvia has now almost certainly got itself well bogged down in recession (even while the inflation fire continues to roar). The only really big remaining question is just how long it will have to wait to come out of this recession, and just what the Latvian economy will look like (in a structural sense) when we get to that point.

A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him.
John Maynard Keynes

Latvian Producer Prices March 2008

Compared to February 2008, Latvian producer prices were up in March by 0.6%, according to data from the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia. Over the year (ie compared to March 2007) producer prices have increased by 10.5%. As we can see from the chart below producer prices had been falling, but the rate of increase has now remained stubbornly flat since the end of last year. This is not good news, and especially not in the export sector, where - if you they to maintain the euro-lat peg - they need negative price increases over a period of time to restore lost competitiveness.




According to the statistics office:

Compared to February, the overall level of producer prices in March 2008 was mostly effected (by 0.4 percentage points in each activity) by the increase of the tariffs of electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply (mostly in the steam and hot water supply and in the distribution of gaseous fuels) and by the price rise in the manufacture of basic metals. However, the price decrease in the manufacture of food products and beverages (mainly in the manufacture of dairy products and cheese), in the manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, in the manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c. lowered the overall level of producer prices by 0.1 percentage point in each activity.


Over the year the price increase in the manufacture of food products and beverages left the biggest impact on the overall level of producer prices, increasing it by 4.3 percentage points. The increase of the tariffs of electricity, gas, steam and hot water supply raised the overall price level by 2.0 percentage points. The price rose in the manufacture of furniture; manufacture n.e.c. increased the overall price level by 0.7 percentage points, in publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media, in the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, as well as in the manufacture of basic metals – by 0.5 percentage points in each activity.

Latvia Inflation March 2008

Latvia's consumer prices rose again in March, hitting an annual rate of 16.8 percent due in part to the increasing cost of services, according to data today from the statistics office. This was the 10th month in a row that the rate of annual price increase hasrisen in Latvia, keeping it at the top of the European Union inflation Leahue. Month-on-month, prices in March in rose 1.5 percent.




Food prices continued to increase, soaring by 20.8 percent from March 2007. Housing costs were up by 25 percent, while alcohol and tobacco are 45 percent more expensive than a year ago.

A comparative view of Baltic inflation is also quite revealing. As can be seen in the chart below, Latvian inflation is head and shoulders out in front, though this is one competition noone is very happy to be winning.

Latvia Has Budget Surplus in Q1 2008

Latvia posted a provisional budget surplus of about 70 million lati ($158 million) in the first three months of 2008, the state treasury said today. The government had a provisional surplus of about 2 million lati in the month of March. Official budget figures will be released in mid-April, the treasury said.

Latvia's economy is slowing rapidly and while a budget surplus of about 1 percent of gross domestic product had been envisaged for this year this now seems unlikely to be achieved. Indeed there has been some discussion as to whether it might not in fact be advisable - given the rate of the slowdown in Latvia - to move sooner rather than later into suplus to try to avoid the now much feared "hard landing". Be that as it may we are still at this point in surplus, although the situation is more than likely going to change as the economy slows and revenues decline.

``The pace of growth is no longer as strong as last year, when revenue in the first quarter grew 26 percent,'' Finance Minister Atis Slatkeris said in the statement. ``Second quarter results will show if this pace of growth will remain for a longer period of time,''

A deficit now seems quite probable, since it has been estimated that Latvia would have a deficit equal to 1.5 percent of GDP this year on economic growth of 5 percent (which is the latest Latvian government growth forecast for 2008 made by Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis earlier this week), and my feeling is we are already way below that rate.

Latvia Industrial Output February 2008

Latvian industrial output again showed substantial signs of contraction in year on year terms in February, even if on a month on month basis, and as compared to January 2007, industrial production rose by 1.3%, according to the seasonally adjusted data from the Central Statistical Bureau. In mining and quarrying there was an increase of 4.3%, and in manufacturing of 1.5%, while in electricity, gas and water supply decreased by 6.8%.




Compared to February 2007 however, industrial output in February - adjusted for changes in the number of working days - decreased by 4.7%. In manufacturing there was a decrease of 1%, in electricity, gas and water of 10%, while in mining and quarrying the volume of output increased by 31.4%. So while manufacturing is still contracting on annual basis, it is perhaps doing so at a slightly slower rate. As is becoming typical at the moment, we need to see just a bit more data before reaching any strong conclusions.