tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post4224748530476644354..comments2010-02-14T12:44:58.216+01:00Comments on Latvia Economy Watch: The Clock Is Ticking Away Under LatviaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-17050614080565819322009-06-20T11:58:39.574+02:002009-06-20T11:58:39.574+02:00"I tried to translate your article into a set..."I tried to translate your article into a set of interrelated feedback loops."<br /><br />Fantastic, thanks a million.Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-21016144352628905712009-06-20T11:09:16.529+02:002009-06-20T11:09:16.529+02:00I tried to translate your article into a set of in...I tried to translate your article into a set of interrelated feedback loops.<br />.<br />If you understand Portuguese... after all not very different from Castillian, you can see then: <br />.<br />http://balancedscorecard.blogspot.com/2009/06/abencoada-internet-parte-iii.htmlCCzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14653748657820727728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-72496649480452217282009-06-16T22:39:50.023+02:002009-06-16T22:39:50.023+02:00to Robert
Not necessarily so: Latvia's economy...to Robert<br />Not necessarily so: Latvia's economy since 1991 independance works on the boom-bust-boom-bust cycle. Every time, when Latvian assets go to their lowest value, they become interesting for foreign investors. Granted, the current situation, by its globality, reduces the number of possible foreign investors. <br />But as other countries will bounce back up faster than Latvia, the difference between available liquidities to invest and Latvian low prices will make it again a desirable market.<br />Let's not forget that not all of the credit frenzy went in thin air or as a pocket liner for Latvian ministers' friends. Lots of it was used to modernize or create viable production infrastructure. These factories, workshops, farms, etc... can already be bought for a very fair (for the buyer) price. The current "budget diet" already is driving down the price of the Latvian workforce. One or two notches down, a stabilization of the economies of a few neighbours (ok, this time Russians are out of the picture. Is it so bad ?), and we won't have to wait so long to see again the nose of Germans, Scandinavians and others to come and sniff good opportunities.<br /><br />Two years, three top. Patience and good survival skills are needed, sure. But not in vain.Philippe Massonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00559108855218898837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-88177547284803903922009-06-16T20:15:52.364+02:002009-06-16T20:15:52.364+02:00To Philippe
I see your point and you are probably...To Philippe<br /><br />I see your point and you are probably correct in your assumption, unfortunate for you I think it will be a long time before things start to pick up on investment made in Latvia.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723548036653263236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-30401187193594925502009-06-16T18:57:53.532+02:002009-06-16T18:57:53.532+02:00There is still an incentive in Latvia : the "...There is still an incentive in Latvia : the "mother's pay". Every woman here can get a big share of her last income during the child's first year, allowing her to stay home during that time. Alas, this social measure has been under constant attack from the government during the last weeks.<br /><br />These threats of reducing the allowance have lots of couples postponing their decision. Especially as other family social support just was diminished. <br /><br />Other European (and non European) countries provide a much better support and with a lower tax pressure on individuals. Most mixed couples (mine among others) start seriously thinking about emigration. But when you have invested most of your capital in Latvia, there is no point in going now : no way to sell your assets at a decent value. This also goes for the Latvians who would like to emigrate but still have assets in Latvia.<br />Therefore, though there is a huge increase of enquiries for emigration in all embassies after each new governmental decision to cut budgets, there might be also a wave outwards when the market (especially real estate) "restarts".<br /><br />The move that was started by the Latvian crisis will have quite long terms echoes in the demographics.Philippe Massonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00559108855218898837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-42529862930971734912009-06-15T16:20:26.664+02:002009-06-15T16:20:26.664+02:00To: Hynek Filip
Yes you are quite right that temp...To: Hynek Filip<br /><br />Yes you are quite right that temporary fast become permanet especially after the first child abroad.<br />I just need to look at my wife and her friends here in France to see that they are not going back to Latvia.<br />Bad for Latvia but good for the individuals that have left. People make decision in favor to them self (and family) and not for the common good.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723548036653263236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-71668142430389652462009-06-15T16:18:50.727+02:002009-06-15T16:18:50.727+02:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723548036653263236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-17201443189714421062009-06-15T16:17:11.576+02:002009-06-15T16:17:11.576+02:00This comment has been removed by the author.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723548036653263236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-59508624622850056662009-06-15T10:48:12.840+02:002009-06-15T10:48:12.840+02:00Robert is quite right. I would say that Latvia wil...Robert is quite right. I would say that Latvia will fairly soon have i) very high unemployment rate (30% would be my guess), ii) relatively low wages, and iii) quite skilled and educated workforce.<br /><br />What will surely happen, if skilled people can not find jobs, and those few jobs available will pay minuscule wages, and the social security net will not support them and their families? Those people will take the first flight to elsewhere.<br /><br />It has happened in the CEE countries so many times since the fall of communism: there has been massive outward migration from Poland during the 1990s, a very significant outward migration from the Czech Republic during the same time, and there continues to be a steady stream of migrants from both the Ukraine and Slovakia, of which Prague has been a notable recipient.<br /><br />Considering that incentives to emigration in either Poland or Slovakia have never been so strong as they may soon be in Latvia, yet still Poles and Slovaks have been leaving, we should not be surprised if relatively large numbers of Latvians start seeking work wherever it can be found.<br /><br />Of course, the outward migration may be temporary at first, but if teh conditions in Latvia do not change very quickly, temporary may become permanent rather easily.Hynek Filipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-82863535462083782712009-06-15T09:54:04.239+02:002009-06-15T09:54:04.239+02:00BLA, BLA, BLA:
08.06.-12.06.2009 Selling lats, ...BLA, BLA, BLA: <br /> <br />08.06.-12.06.2009 Selling lats, the Bank of Latvia bought 160.0 million euro <br /><br /><br />Gottcha:PAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-66546162747154030412009-06-15T09:25:28.651+02:002009-06-15T09:25:28.651+02:00Quite interesting correlations you point out. Howe...Quite interesting correlations you point out. However having children is not always a question of economic security but other factors influence the decision to bear child.<br />However I see the migration from Latvia as a much bigger problem for the country as a whole.<br />I can just speak from my personal experiences but in my wifes family there are 3 of 10 relatives and friends are already working abroad and I think only 1 of 10 is official in the Latvian statistics.<br />And it is the young women that are away not the men nor elderly except for my mother in law ;-)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16723548036653263236noreply@blogger.com