tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post3549754031626486796..comments2010-02-14T12:44:58.216+01:00Comments on Latvia Economy Watch: Latvian FertilityUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-10770650090979708862009-10-16T09:53:10.840+02:002009-10-16T09:53:10.840+02:00In other words, what I am saying Edmunds is that I...In other words, what I am saying Edmunds is that I can see all the difficulties, and do not underestimate them even for one moment, but I think at this darkest of moments in its modern history Latvia, and its people, need a positive message. one of hope. That there can be a future.Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-9721655559056726212009-10-16T09:50:43.375+02:002009-10-16T09:50:43.375+02:00Hello Edmunds,
I understsand completely the issue...Hello Edmunds,<br /><br />I understsand completely the issue you are raising. But I think we need to distinguish two different tihngs here.<br /><br />a) The future of a small country like Latvia<br /><br />b) the global issue of what happens to the modern growth era in the longer run (between now and 2030, lets say).<br /><br />I think if we lose sight of this distinction, then we will not be able to help Latvia out of its current mess, and the country will simply die, as the economy contracts and young people leave.<br /><br />Newly export dependent countries like Latvia with large external debts and ageing and declining populations will find positive GDP growth ever more difficult to attain in both the short and the longer run.<br /><br />Personally I don't see how you are going to get out of the current mess without a sovereign default given all the mistakes that have been made. And this will just be the start of your problems.<br /><br />The countries of central and eastern europe have a special difficulty in that they have gotten old before they have gotten rich, and the current crisis only makes this situation more dramatic. This is a result of the unique histories of these countries, and does not apply, for example to Turkey, Morocco, Brazil, India etc, where they will have problems with the ageing transition, but on nothing like the same scale as in the East of Europe.<br /><br />China, with the legacy of 30 years of one child per family policy, is, of course, a big potential headache for everyone.<br /><br />"So how is immigration more than a temporary patch? Is perpetual population growth really the answer to this problem? "We have too few people so lets import some" doesn't really sound like a permanent solution to me."<br /><br />It isn't more than a temporary patch. I agree. But would you rather have a temporary patch now to help you get through to 2020 while we all look for more solutions, or are you simply going to be fatalist and say "well, we are all dead in the long run, so let's die now"?<br /><br />The issue is a simple one, you won't get sustainable economic growth in the future unless you turn the short run population outlook round NOW. You are already in a lose-lose dynamic. Unless you react this only ends one way. Unfortunately.<br /><br />So, let's leave the large scale global issue on one side for the time being and focus on Latvia and its specific problems, shall we?Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-3613147971129564222009-10-15T10:23:41.509+02:002009-10-15T10:23:41.509+02:00Edward,
I understand the problem in Latvia, but w...Edward,<br /><br />I understand the problem in Latvia, but what I don't get is your solution. You say:<br /><br />"In the meantime the only alternative is inward migration, and if the Latvian government is serious about trying to avoid a hard landing then it had better get serious about migration, and how to facilitate it."<br /><br /><br />Your solution is a such a deja vu - we have already tried it once. Back at the end of 1940s, when USSR decided to capitalize on Latvia's intellectual and industrial capacity by building a lot factories, the USSR ran into the problem of not having enough people to work all the factories (hundreds of thousands of people had been deported to gulag camps in Siberia after the occupation, killed during the war or fled to the developed world). And so the russification policy was put into second gear and hundreds of thousands of immigrants arrived to smooth along the growth. <br /><br />60 years later, here we are, except on top of economic problems we now also have social tensions between the majority Latvians and minority immigrants, who have no respect for the country they live in and the language we speak. <br /><br /><br />So how is immigration more than a temporary patch? <b>Is perpetual population growth really the answer to this problem?</b> "We have too few people so lets import some" doesn't really sound like a permanent solution to me. What happens in another 50 years, what happens in 2100? The population of the earth cannot keep on growing and growing up until infinity, so at one point there will come a time when we will have to face this same problem except "lets import some people" isn't going to be on the list of solutions. <br /><br />What do we do then?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-34016327017655730972009-06-05T21:19:26.284+02:002009-06-05T21:19:26.284+02:00Hello again evm,
"I'm not an economist, ...Hello again evm,<br /><br />"I'm not an economist, I just like to know how everything works."<br /><br />Well, you set yourself a difficult objective.<br /><br />Basically the devaluation issue is a side question. It is important enough now, and generates, of course, a lot of emotions. But the real issues, those which will actually determine the sustainability or otherwise of your country, are all to do with what we are talking about here, which, as you will notice from the deafening silence which surrounds our conversation, few people are even thinking about right now.<br /><br />"So the best politics, as I imagine, would be to try bring back migrated population back to Latvia,"<br /><br />Well, there is a lot to be done. And what you mention is one possibility, although this road presents a lot of difficulties. Indeed I fear a long drawn out crisis will lead even more to leave.<br /><br />Anyway, when the immediate problems (to devalue or not to devalue etc) are behind us, and the emotional temperature has cooled a little, I fully intend to be raising all these issues much more forcefully, and looking, of course, towards solutions.Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-70778692368792687242009-06-05T00:49:44.288+02:002009-06-05T00:49:44.288+02:00Hello Edward,
Thanks for the answer.
I apologize...Hello Edward,<br /><br />Thanks for the answer.<br /><br />I apologize that I didn't introduce myself, I thought you won't answer.<br /><br />I have link to your blog on Alpha.Sources blog, when I decided to build an opinion on the devaluation probability (I decided to start from basics). I'm not an economist, I just like to know how everything works.<br /><br />Back to the topic. I understand now. It's like if at one point (slow postponement process in this case) all women would decide to have babies (delay here), and we would see rapid jump at total fertility rate (equaled to the number of all women) and high starting point of cohort fertility rate. But after that we would see fall (slow increase in our case) of cohort fertility rate to 0 (assuming there were no women before) but again after all women get to age when they reach an age to be able to have children we would see instant jump in total fertility rate (probable decline in the case of Latvia).<br /><br />"If you add to this the kind of acute economic crisis you now have in Latvia, and outmigration of lots of people in reproductive ages (who are already starting to come from reduced generations), then the problem can become quite serious."<br /><br />So the best politics, as I imagine, would be to try bring back migrated population back to Latvia, since that wouldn't damage the shape of natural pyramid, as for example bringing people from abroad, since it would take a lot of resources to control age of arriving people (like USA most likely do).<br /><br />I appreciate your kindness and willingness to help.Vladlen Šeninhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11817599591422311476noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-27316106048236511022009-06-03T23:23:38.471+02:002009-06-03T23:23:38.471+02:00Hello EVM,
Welcome. I guess you found your way he...Hello EVM,<br /><br />Welcome. I guess you found your way here through the sidebar.<br /><br />"I see the point, but could you please explain more clearly"<br /><br /> <br /><br />OK, I will try. Basically, there is a decline and then a recovery. As people put off having children less children are born during a period of time. This produces an artifically high drop in the Total Fertility Rate. But then the postponement process runs its course - say at the age of around 30 - and then a lot of people all have children at the same time, which produces the sensation of a mini baby boom. As a result the TFR spikes up again.<br /><br />For this reason the Cohort Fertility Rate - based on the total number of children born to women during their entire reproductive lifetime - is a much more interesting indicator. The upper end is normally taken as 45, which means that in 2010 we will have the data for people born in 1965. That is the disadvantage with the CFR, it is not exactly "fresh" data, and makes it hard to plan policy for current changes, which is why we still normally use TFR.<br /><br />So there is a fertility "recovery", but how far it goes is still in doubt.<br /><br />But most of this is beside the point, since what really matters for a society is the shape of the pyramid - this has a lot more economic importance than most people imagine.<br /><br />And the shape is not determined by TFR of CFR, but by the volume and rate of birth postponement, since this is what determines the size of each generation, and of course each generation then produces a subsequent generation, so you can get a kind of "meltdown" dynamic.<br /><br />If you add to this the kind of acute economic crisis you now have in Latvia, and outmigration of lots of people in reproductive ages (who are already starting to come from reduced generations), then the problem can become quite serious.<br /><br />Of course, with all the emotions being focused on the devaluation debate this sort of thing is hardly getting talked about.Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2873748063007712173.post-27935016823779413492009-06-03T22:56:16.358+02:002009-06-03T22:56:16.358+02:00I see the point, but could you please explain more...I see the point, but could you please explain more clearly how increase in first birth ages relates to *rise* in fertility rate. Shouldn't it result in fertility rate decrease?<br /><br />P.S please delete previous comment<br /><br />Edit: misused words (fall - rise)Vladlen Šeninhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11817599591422311476noreply@blogger.com